Under the trade war, three questions about China's air-conditioning exports
The Sino-US trade warfare eventually burned on home appliances. On July 11, 2018, the catalogue of tax collections had already spread, and the low-cost Chinese air-conditioner exports were superimposed with a 10% tax rate. It's worse, but what impact will the industry and business have? How big is this influence? In addition to the direct impact, what should be followed by Chinese export companies in the short term? What efforts should be made in the long run? It is the focus of our attention.
1 Influence has geometry?
To judge the impact, and the breadth and depth of the impact, the data is the most convincing. From 2010 to 2017, the proportion of the quantity and amount of China's export air conditioners to the United States, for eight consecutive years, the number of air conditioners exported to the United States accounted for about 20% of the total export volume, accounting for only about 13% of the total amount. From the perspective of such a structure, the impact of tax increases on China's air-conditioning exports is limited.
The industry interviewed several major manufacturers that exported more air conditioners in the United States. The basic feedback is not much impact, and the frontline business personnel are calm and self-sufficient.
The reason is that although the cost has a 10% increase from the direct impact, the cost is comprehensive and complicated. In view of the current situation, the actual cost will not increase by that much. First of all, this year's bulk raw materials, especially copper prices, showed a slight correction. In addition, the exchange rate rushed to a high point and has been showing a downward trend in the near future. The decline in these two aspects has made the cost increase buffered and digested.
On the other hand, China's air-conditioning products exported to the United States are mainly window machines and mobile air conditioners. The proportion of these two products is about 70%, the unit price is low, and the profit is meager. There are no related manufacturing plants in the United States, which are basically imported from China, and the United States will not build factories to produce in the short term. The demand for such large demand to turn to other countries is not high, so the tax increase is generated. The result is only one: that is, all Chinese manufacturers will increase the same cost. If Chinese companies raise prices because of tariff collection, American consumers can only accept such a reality.
From the perspective of enterprises exporting air-conditioners, the main brands exported to the United States are Midea, Gree and Haier. In 2017, the total exports accounted for 68% of China's air-conditioner exports to the United States, accounting for 64% of the total. If we look at the structure of the company alone, Haier's exports to the United States account for a slightly higher proportion, but Haier has already acquired GE, and the cost and price issues can be solved internally. The proportion of the United States and Gree's share structure fluctuated around the industry average, especially Gree, export sales revenue only accounted for 12%, and North American customers are relatively stable, so the overall impact is relatively limited.
2 What will happen to the competition?
The most realistic problem at the moment is that after the implementation of taxation, although the impact is not large, what kind of actions and thinking should be taken by China's air-conditioning industry and enterprises. This year's peak season for China's air-conditioning exports to the US has come to an end. In the short term, what changes will the price and competition have?
As mentioned above, due to the characteristics of Chinese air conditioners exporting US products, the final competition is still within the competition among Chinese companies. The decline in copper prices and exchange rates has given up a certain amount of room for China's air-conditioning export prices, but this profit margin is the choice of each company. The profit originally exported to the United States has been very meager, and the average unit price of China's air-conditioner exports to the US has fallen to an all-time low of 2010, only $128.2 per unit in 2017. In this case, the benign competition is even more precious. For this "war" without smoke, it is also the best moment to reflect the national spirit and grasp the national interests.
In the long run, the product structure of China's air-conditioning exports needs to be continuously optimized, and the need to get rid of the low-price and low-profit sales situation requires a fundamental solution. When other core products, such as chips, can truly achieve full localization, it is also crucial to keep up with the pace of domestic demand. At present, increasing investment in the chip industry is a top-down consensus of China's manufacturing industry. However, it takes more time and more investment to produce more sophisticated chips. It takes time to meet more and higher requirements. precipitation.
3 Is there a risk in demand?
China's air-conditioning exports to the United States have maintained double-digit growth for two consecutive years. From the export situation in the first half of this year, it still maintained a good demand momentum. Although the growth rate has narrowed compared with last year, the overall growth rate is still 5%. the above. This is also due to the good economic situation in the United States. The US government has adopted a rate hike policy to prevent inflation from being too high, and it will not rule out a rate hike in the later period, fully demonstrating that the US economy is developing strongly, then the demand should remain relatively strong. situation. Therefore, the overall judgment of China's air-conditioning exports to the United States should not have much change and risk.
Although the core of the Sino-US trade war is not a home appliance product, it has inevitably been affected. Since it is difficult to avoid, it can only respond positively. One of the most important reference indicators for a country's strength is high-end manufacturing and technology research and development capabilities. Corresponding to the current home appliance industry or air-conditioning industry, we can say that you are not afraid of being bigger, you are afraid that you will be bigger and stronger. This is Real competition!