2018 rare earth market analysis and forecast
The prices of rare earths have dropped since August. At present, the prices of most commodities have declined by a large margin. Neodymium oxide, praseodymium, has dropped from a high of 540,000 yuan / ton to the current 330,000 yuan / ton, a drop of 39%. Dysprosium oxide from the high 1550000 yuan / ton down to 1140000 yuan / ton, a decrease of 26%. Terbium oxide from the high 4.15 million yuan / ton down to the current 2.85 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 31%. For the market price of rare earth changes, there is still room for decline.
The main reasons for the drop: first of all, the policy is unclear. In the early stage, policies on smuggling and environmental protection were gradually phased out. There was no result for Ganzhou's acquisition of scrap materials by the enterprises engaged in recycling of rare earth waste. The upstream enterprises started their operations in full swing with a sharp increase in output. In addition Rare Earth State Reserve did not promote from May, the market confidence in the business negative attitude, a substantial increase in shipments, resulting in lower sales prices. Second, the downstream demand, 8-10 months, most downstream companies also stock, purchase orders less into the market, resulting in large shipments, inquiry orders rarely. To November, even if the downstream companies have entered the market purchase, buy or not buy up the mentality, the majority of enterprises or a small amount of procurement based. Rare earth market prices, mainly due to unclear policies, businesses lack of confidence.
For the market outlook, the end of the Ministry of Industry crackdown, operability is not high. State Reserve Bureau also has too many uncertainties for rare earths national reserves, starting upstream large, resulting in a clear oversupply of the market pattern, the downstream demand is still in a wait-and-see trend, resulting in the current rare earth market in the priceless market, less turnover The situation. If there is no policy stimulus, supply and demand alone to adjust the market price trend is expected by the end of the month, neodymium oxide will fall below 300,000 yuan / ton, dysprosium to 112-113 yuan / ton, terbium oxide to 250-260 million Yuan / ton.
Into 2018, the rare earth industry may appear several situations, the market price of rare earth changes have a decisive impact.
On the rare earth state reserves, there is still the possibility of continued storage, but stochastic purchasing and storage is very difficult to operate, the impact of rare earth stockpiles on the market price changes decline.
Government intervention still exists, the anti-smite and environmental protection policies are still more vigorous implementation of the impact on the supply of rare earth market, thus stimulating the price rise.
Rare on the possibility of rising production targets, for the time being, should remain unchanged. There is much controversy over whether REEs are included in the production targets or not and how effective implementation is a crucial issue.
Downstream demand side, especially the terminal demand is in a rising trend, especially the rapid development of new energy vehicles, the demand for NdFeB accelerated, so the demand for praseodymium neodymium and terbium terbium will rapidly increase by the new energy vehicles Speed calculation, it is estimated that the demand of new energy vehicles for praseodymium and neodymium will exceed 30%. Throughout the industry, the demand for praseodymium and neodymium increased by more than 10%. Demand steadily increased, the price of rare earth market is in good condition.
Rare earth industry, the demand side is in growth, but the supply is far greater than the changes in demand, resulting in market prices remained at a downturn. It is estimated that there will be a corresponding change in policy in 2018, handling the output of illegal illegal production capacity, cracking down the negative factors arising from the supply side and actively promoting changes in the demand side so as to narrow the gap in the supply pattern and reduce the market price of rare earth support. For rare earth price changes, neodymium oxide is expected to appear new heights, to 55-60 million / ton, dysprosium to maintain at 130-135 yuan / ton, terbium oxide to 350-400 yuan / ton.