In November, the price of rare earths expanded. The increase in the month was 16% neodymium praseodymium oxide, 23% neodymium oxide, 22% terbium oxide, and 8.5% dysprosium oxide. From the data point of view, the increase is limited, but the market sentiment is quite hot, the spot is tight, the upstream does not offer quotations, and the downstream receiving capacity is good. As long as there is a quotation market, there will be orders. After experiencing the market in 2011, some businesses said that this is another 2011? From the current market changes and the analysis of supply and demand, it is difficult for the market to reappear, but this year's market may appear to a new height in the market after 2011.
The main reasons are as follows:
In the recent ten years of rare earth market price fluctuations, the impact of policies and sudden factors is greater than the impact of changes in supply and demand. Even if market supply exceeds demand, the price of rare earths can still rise rapidly due to emotional influence, which is characterized by rapid increase, large increase, and turning point Decline rapidly. However, the market in 2020 is different. In the first half of the year, due to the impact of the epidemic, demand was weak and prices fell. In the second half of the year, demand rebounded and continued to increase, so that the demand for orders caused the upstream rare earth supply to start to become tight. The price of rare earths showed a stepped increase, first slowly rising, then appropriate callback, when the market stabilized, it rose to a high level. From this point of view, the price stability of rare earths is better, the downstream acceptability is stronger, and the gap between supply and demand is narrowed to provide more stable support for the entire market.
In the past rare earth market, the black rare earth industry chain accounted for half of the country. Since the governance in 2017, the source of rare earth mines has been transferred to foreign countries, with a steady stream of imports of rare earth mines from Myanmar, Australia, the United States and other countries. Through national control in recent years, the proportion of the black industry chain has been greatly reduced, and imported resources account for about 30% of China's rare earth supply. With the regulation of the rare earth market, there are more separation capacity idle in the industry, resulting in a slowdown in rare earth supply growth. In terms of future development, light rare earth indicators will still be gradually liberalized, but the increase is limited, and imported rare earth resources are difficult to increase significantly. The growth rate of rare earth supply is calculated at 5-10%. By 2025, the total rare earth supply will be about 350,000 tons However, in the face of rapidly increasing demand, there will be a gap in the supply of rare earths.
The most important demand for rare earth is the rare earth permanent magnet industry. In the past ten years, the global output of rare earth NdFeB has increased from 120,000 tons to the current annual output of 250,000 tons. In the next five years, the output of rare earth permanent magnets may double to 50%. Million tons. Among them, the growth forecast of new energy vehicles, the layout of the wind power industry, and the consumption changes of electronic products, etc. related terminal industries have substantial support for rare earth permanent magnets. In the second half of 2020, under the influence of the global epidemic, the production of rare earth permanent magnets is expected to increase by 15-20%, especially in the fourth quarter, the continuous increase in orders will support the continued increase in the price of rare earth materials. If the global rare earth permanent magnets reach 500,000 tons in the next five years, 120,000 tons of neodymium praseodymium oxide will be consumed, and the total rare earth supply will reach 550,000 tons.
Regarding the downstream application of rare earth permanent magnets, the state has comprehensively promoted. In order to meet the consumption growth, China's rare earth supply will also be adjusted. Judging by changes in historical indicators, the country's policy is to gradually liberalize light rare earths and still implement strict control over medium and heavy rare earths. With the substantial increase in demand in the future, whether the medium and heavy rare earth indicators will be adjusted. In addition, the export control law is about to be promulgated. As a strategic resource, rare earths are used to restrict the export of rare earths and sanction countries or companies that violate China's security laws. The probability is still very high. For the future development of the rare earth industry, China must actively promote domestic applications, and the consumption growth of rare earths will expand.
This increase in rare earth prices is due to changes in the supply and demand pattern and the narrowing of the gap between supply and demand. Even if there is no external influence, the price of rare earths can still rise all the way, so the positive sentiment of the merchants in the market will increase. With the support of positive sentiment, the price of rare earths has accelerated, especially recently, the prices of some rare earth products have risen rapidly. However, as market prices become too high, sentiment will fade.
To sum up, this increase in rare earth prices is the impact of the changes in the supply and demand pattern, the change of short positions under the influence of the first half of the epidemic, and the return to the rise of Chinese manufacturing under the raging global epidemic. Consumption is constantly escalating and demand is increasing rapidly. The prices of commodity raw materials continue to rise, and rare earths are just in response to the current surge in raw material prices. Rare earth, as a strategic resource and special material, has attracted much attention. After many rapid rises and falls, the market lacks durability and confidence. When supply and demand really change, there will inevitably be doubts again, but this time the price of rare earths is stepped. The rise has already explained the development trend of the industry.